Eritrea–Ethiopia Stand‑Off: Is War Inevitable?

As of mid‑August 2025, Eritrea and Ethiopia are not at war—but the situation remains alarmingly volatile. Heightened military activity, political fragmentation in Tigray, and unaddressed grievances have created a tinderbox scenario that could ignite at any moment.

Fragile Peace, Lingering Tensions

The two-year conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region ended with a ceasefire and the Pretoria Agreement in November 2022. While this brought hostilities between Addis Ababa and Tigray forces to a tentative halt, Eritrea, excluded from the peace process, retained a military presence in parts of Tigray.

Military Posturing on Both Sides

In early 2025, Eritrea initiated widespread military mobilization, recalling reservists and bolstering its forces. Ethiopia responded by deploying troops and armored units to its northern border.Despite these alarming moves, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed publicly reaffirmed that his nation seeks a peaceful resolution, not war, as it pursues sea access via diplomacy.

The TPLF Rift: A Proxy Risk Ignites

Within Tigray, the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) is fractured into two factions. One faction, aligned with the federal government under Getachew Reda, remains cautious of external interference. The rival faction, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, has seized local administrations and is accused of collaborating with Eritrean forces. Observers warn that Tigray could become a proxy battlefield, with regional militias and foreign involvement threatening to escalate tensions.

Signs of Escalation—But War Is Avoidable

Experts warn that the situation is like a “dry tinder waiting for a spark.” However, both sides appear reluctant to fully plunge into war. Analysts note that neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea stands to benefit from open conflict, international isolation, sanctions, and internal instability act as deterrents.

Humanitarian Crisis: Still Unresolved

The Tigray war inflicted catastrophic suffering. Even after the 2022 ceasefire, Eritrean troops remained in the region, and sexual violence, often brutally systematic, languished with no accountability. Reports detail mass rape, forced pregnancy, and ongoing trauma affecting survivors across all age groups. Meanwhile, healthcare infrastructure remains decimated, leaving countless individuals, including disabled veterans, without vital medical support.

Conclusion

Although conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea has not broken out, the current state of affairs is precarious. Military mobilization, regional power struggles, and deep humanitarian scars present a grave risk. A single misstep could transform this fragile stand‑off into open war. Urgent, coordinated diplomatic efforts, backed by regional and international actors, are essential to diffuse the situation and safeguard peace.

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