As Nigeria eyes the 2027 presidential election, a new political coalition has emerged under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), promising to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s governing All Progressives Congress (APC). On July 2, in Abuja’s Umar Musa Yar’Adua Centre, a lineup of seasoned politicians Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, and others unveiled this alliance, claiming to act in defense of democratic pluralism and to prevent a slide into one-party rule. Yet scrutiny reveals that the coalition may reflect more of the same entrenched power dynamics than a genuine transformation in service of ordinary Nigerians.
Origins of the Coalition: Continuity of the Political Elite
The formation of this coalition was not spontaneous. Sponsors disclose that it originated approximately 18 months ago through a series of National Executive Committee meetings and dialogues with former heads of state, including Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida. The meticulous orchestration behind the scenes underscores the control still held by Nigeria’s political class over the direction of opposition politics raising questions about its authenticity and grassroots relevance.
Missing Voices: A Coalition Without the People
Despite the coalition’s rhetoric that it speaks for “all Nigerians,” labor unions, civic organizations, and community-based groups who have led mass actions against soaring fuel costs, subsidy withdrawals, and worsening living conditions were notably absent from its formation. The ADC figures did not take a formal stance during critical national mobilizations, such as the 2024 nationwide union strikes or the #EndBadGovernance protests. Instead, the coalition’s engagement was limited to token social media endorsements, while those on the ground led the real fight for people’s welfare.
Reactions: Government Pushback and Rival Criticism
The presidency swiftly dismissed the ADC coalition as a “hollow alliance” of “political desperados” motivated by personal ambition rather than national interest, warning that the grouping lacked coherence and would ultimately fail . Civil society critics echoed this skepticism: the North Central Citizens Council labeled it a “coalition of confusion” born from the ambitions of those who helped create the country’s current troubles. Meanwhile, the left-leaning African Action Congress called the coalition an “elite club” that undermines public trust while warning Nigerians they deserve a “Coalition of the Oppressed,” not this recycled elite alliance
Coalition or Convenience? Insights from Analysts
Observers compare this alliance to the 2013 formation of the APC itself initially positioned as a strategic alternative capable of defeating the long-reigning PDP. Yet they caution that, unlike then, today’s coalition lacks clear ideological grounding, unity of vision, or widespread trust. Analysts warn that unless the coalition moves beyond simply opposing Tinubu and articulates a coherent policy roadmap, it risks fizzling out amid internal conflict and public skepticism
Power, Resources, and Influence: What Gives the Coalition Momentum
Despite its questionable origins, the ADC alliance should not be underestimated. Its architects control significant political machinery, financial networks, and grassroots structures acquired during long tenures in public office. These assets could make the coalition formidable if it manages to unite and mobilize effectively. Its emergence signals frustration within elite ranks, driven by shared discontent over APC’s governance and a fear of marginalization should Tinubu’s hold remain unchallenged.
The Real Risk: Repeating History in New Disguise
At its core, the coalition’s danger lies in perpetuating a cycle where political change means swapping one faction of elite custodians for another while systemic inequalities and democratic deficit remain unaddressed. Without genuine people-led movements and credible alternatives that prioritize the marginalized, Nigeria may find itself trapped in successive elite power plays that fail to transform governance or redistribute power.
Conclusion: Time for a Citizens-Led Alternative
The ADC coalition’s formation marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s political landscape but not necessarily in favor of democratic deepening or social justice. What Nigeria needs is not another elite pact, but a coalition rooted in communities, workers, and youth, committed to structural reform over political gain. Only such a grassroots-driven, ideologically grounded movement can offer a real alternative and disrupt the cycle of recycled power.
for more news visit our website africabizmonitor.com