R65-billion. That is the prize the Minerals Council South Africa says the country’s mining sector could capture by 2035, alongside between 50 000 and 100 000 additional jobs, if sustained annual growth of 3% can be achieved under an improved investment environment. The estimate anchors the Investment and Growth Strategy unveiled by council president Paul Dunne on October 7, a plan built to pull capital into exploration, new mines and existing operations.
The strategy’s core diagnosis, from an investor’s standpoint, is why that capital has not been flowing. Despite South Africa’s extraordinary mineral endowment, world-class mining expertise and long-established industrial capability, production remains below levels achieved more than two decades ago. Exploration expenditure has fallen by 80% over the past two decades, and the country attracts less than 1% of global exploration capital even though it offers one of the most attractive geological opportunities in the world.
Dunne was blunt about what those numbers mean. They represent deferred investment, unrealised production, forgone economic activity and employment opportunities that never materialised. “The green shoots, as indicated by the mine extensions, new mines and progress in feasibility studies, must be nourished with an enabling environment to serve as an open invitation for the world to invest in South African mining,” he said.
Recent announcements by member companies of mine extensions, new mines and feasibility progress towards new mines were described as encouraging signals. Yet the bulk of the R70-billion in investments already committed and ready for implementation is aimed at maintaining output at current levels rather than expanding it, a distinction that matters for anyone assessing the sector’s growth trajectory.
The constraint, the strategy’s authors argue, is not the resource base. “South Africa’s mining challenges are not a function of geology, resource quality or investor interest,” Dunne said. “We are well positioned to participate in a global economy increasingly shaped by demand for minerals required for industrial development, energy security, advanced manufacturing and technological innovation.” The binding constraint, in his view, is the ability of the broader operating and regulatory environment to convert that opportunity into investment. The quality of infrastructure, the efficiency of permitting systems, the predictability of regulatory frameworks, the reliability of energy supply and the effectiveness of public institutions all determine the degree to which conditions for capital-intensive investment exist.
The strategy aims to build an evidence-based understanding of the factors constraining mining investment and growth, and to identify the interventions most likely to improve the sector’s contribution to the economy. Dunne described the process as having identified multiple mining-specific barriers across the investment and operating environment, forming the foundation for what he called one of the most important strategic initiatives undertaken by the Minerals Council in recent years.
Consultations surfaced a consistent set of obstacles. Infrastructure constraints relating to logistics, electricity and water were repeatedly raised as key challenges. Crime and illegal mining were flagged as eroding competitiveness and pushing up operating costs. Junior mining and exploration companies identified a range of obstacles that hurt South Africa’s ability to attract early-stage investment, while the need for policy and administrative certainty emerged as a recurring theme in stakeholder engagements.
Many of these constraints, however, sit beyond the direct control of the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR). That is why the inclusion of mining as one of three priority sectors of the Government-Business Partnership is, in Dunne’s words, a critically important development. The partnership provides a mechanism to align government departments, regulators, State-owned entities and the private sector around clearly defined priorities with measurable and tangible outcomes, with the DMPR and the Minerals Council sharing joint accountability for delivery.
Three workstreams give the strategy operational shape. The first, agreed with the DMPR, targets the reduction of administrative bottlenecks affecting mining projects, with the objective of unlocking more than R50-billion in capital expenditure by February 2028. Dunne noted that this pipeline is particularly noteworthy because the opportunities already exist within companies’ portfolios, including new investments and projects capable of expanding current operations and extending mine lives. The second workstream will identify the industry’s competitiveness gaps and define the reforms needed to strengthen South Africa’s position as a mining destination, reflecting his observation that mining jurisdictions increasingly compete on institutional performance, administrative efficiency and the quality of the investment environment. The third supports the DMPR’s national implementation of a transparent and efficient mining cadastre by March 2027, seen as a fundamental requirement for a competitive exploration environment and for mineral rights administration.
Dunne closed on the economics of the opportunity. South Africa’s mineral endowment remains one of its greatest economic advantages, he said, but whether it translates into higher investment, stronger exports, improved competitiveness and greater employment will depend less on the quality of the resources than on the effectiveness of the systems surrounding them. The Investment and Growth Strategy, he argued, provides a clear diagnosis and action plan, while the Government-Business Partnership offers the most immediate pathway to implementation. Whether the R65-billion upside materialises now rests on delivery.